What my tweets could tell us about the political, economic, social, technological landscape for campaigners…

Doing a PEST (political, economic, social, technological) analysis can be a great way for campaigners to look at the external landscape that they’re campaigning in – so as we head into a new year I decided to look back through the 100s of tweets I’d written in 2018 to see if there were some trends that might be emerging.
Politics

• • Brexit – enough said perhaps, and there are lots of great articles out there on the topic, but it’s going to dominate politics over the next 12 months, taking up the bandwidth of Parliament and Government to push forward other legislation, and also the need to shape new policies if and when we leave the EU. But the campaigning over Brexit also shows the new realities in how to use framing, narratives and targeting to win, for those who are looking to stop Brexit it can’t be through using facts alone.

• • The fallout from Brexit – it’s not time for predictions of what will happen, but the end of 2018 showed that events can move quickly, we could get a Conservative leadership election – and a reminder here that favorites don’t always win so look out for outside candidates, or a General Election which means that parties are preparing for it, both by selecting candidates for target seats and starting to think about their manifestos.

• • The rising power of backbench MPs – Assuming the current government survives, the lack of a government majority has highlighted a power shift towards the opposition and back benches that has been growing for decades. If we get through Brexit that could provide an opportunity for campaigners.

• • Metro Mayors – 2019 will see an election for a North of the Tyne mayor to join the existing 22 directly elected Mayors, and with increasing powers being devolved to Mayors they can be powerful advocates to push for issues at a time when Westminster politics can appear gridlocked.

• • A decline in the traditional way that we have engaged and communicated MPs. More and more research is showing MPs saying that they don’t find emails an effective way for supporters to be in touch, so what other approaches should campaigners be looking at?

• The new divides – it’s been labeled open/closed or anywhere/somewhere but the last few years have highlighted the new fractures in British politics, for campaigners they present a challenge in an increasingly polarised country and show that there are some important strategic choices to be made in who you are trying to engage with your issue and a question of is single issue campaigning is contributing to polarisation.

Social

• • Decline in public trust in charities – It wasn’t a great year for the public’s perceptions of charities last year, with the annual Edelman Trust Barometer showing NGOs just ahead of business/media and government, but it’ll be interesting to see how those figures might change when the new figures come out later in January, and when it comes to who the public trust as credible as media spokespeople, charity leaders are once again in the middle of the pack, well behind nurses, teachers, doctors, scientists and members of the armed forces – a good reminder of who can be the most effective spokespeople.

• • Shifting approaches to messages – The traditional focus of campaigning messages being full of facts and figures supported by a sharp brand are out, increasingly being  replaced by a focus on narratives, authenticity in brands shaped and adapted by supporters, and new approaches to campaigning that focus on deep conversations and sharing stories like those that helped to end the abortion ban in Ireland.

• • How we gather – While attendance and membership of traditional institutions that have been at the heart of many movements like the church and trade unions might be declining, but that does mean that new spaces are emerging, from activities like parkrun to Crossfit we’re finding new ways to gather together.  

• • Changing way people engage with campaigns – now that anyone can start a campaign in their living room, the most shared petitions are those set up on the Parliament petition site, and campaigns like Bernie Sanders have shown how we can win big when we give people meaningful work and real responsibility.  

• Pop culture in effecting change – we often overlook it, but popular culture can be as important in shaping policy change as more relied upon approaches, something the JRF have started to look at exploring in their work around domestic poverty in the UK.

Technological

• • We’re turning off from Facebook – or perhaps we’re not – to be honest, it probably depends on your age with young people turning away from the platform, and the Delete Facebook movement was gathering steam, but while those over 55 are flocking to it. Either way the platforms continual changes in policies and approach can make it hard to keep up for campaigners.  

• • Bots and robots – Fear not, robot lobbyists are coming…but in the meantime, we have to contend with Facebook bots that can be put to both helpful and unhelpful uses – but even when that happens they can be defeated.

• • Private platforms – Meanwhile WhatsApp + Messenger (also owned by Facebook – you can’t escape them) is growing and growing, with over 100 billion messages being sent per day (with 65bn of those coming via WhatsApp) – a huge opportunity for campaigners, although the plucky text message refuses to die, remaining a cheap, salient and timely method of communicating with people

• Alexa, take action for me – there is a rise in Smart Speakers, with millions of us inviting them into our homes and a market that is set to grow, and the ability to donate via them already available. How long before it’s possible to take campaign action?

Economics – Interestingly I didn’t tweet much that would end up in the economic section, but here are a few reflections from the few tweets I did send;

• • Death of the High Street – long predicted, but with more and more reports of high street stores struggling with more and more people heading to the internet to shop for everything, what does that mean for traditional campaign approaches like street stalls, the viability of charity shops (where my colleague Alice Fuller has been exploring some really interesting campaigning opportunities), and also the sense of place that can often be important for campaigning. 

• Companies becoming purpose led – as more and more companies with a social purpose are established, what does that mean for the unique role that charities have often played, are we going to see more and more companies start to take on roles that have traditionally been the preserve of charities?