Why campaigners should play more games

If you’ve ever woken up the morning after a big political event and felt unprepared for what might come next then playing more games might help you avoid that. 

War Game is an interesting documentary that brought together a group of retired politician, military officials and civil servants to explore how a US government might respond to a contested election last November, and then make recommendations about what could be done in the event of the circumstances happening.

It’s an OK watch – and ultimately the scenario that it envisaged didn’t happen, but it got me thinking about the role that similar scenario exercises can play in change making. 

Scenario exercises (often referred to as war gaming) has its roots in the military, but is now increasingly used by computer programmers, humanitarian planner and businesses but they seem to be less used by change-makers – although I’d love to know the experiences of readers in using them as an approach in the comments.

Perhaps that’s because they feel like an expensive outlay taking staff off day-to-day work to focus on something more esoteric, or it’s just not possible to think far enough ahead of the immediate to think about the need to do longer term thinking that scenario games best lend themselves to.

But I think that’s short sighted by campaigners – and funders – especially given the moment we are in. 

Watching what’s unfolding with the new Trump administration in the US and it’d be easy to believe that the same couldn’t happen here in the UK and perhaps it won’t. But in the same way that you take out house insurance for something that you don’t think is likely to happen – I don’t think it makes sense to just hope it doesn’t happen. And that’s where game playing comes in.

Scenario exercises allow you to role play what you and others would do in the event of something unexpected happening – and then plan accordingly. 

I’m a big fan of using scenario games in advocacy planning.  Last spring, anticipating a General Election that would be called at some point during the year, at Save the Children we ran a mock election exercise to test how we’d respond in the first 24 hours of the country being called to the polls, and back in the days of being involved in Campaign Bootcamp we used to run scenario campaign exercises to put into practice the campaign skills and knowledge we’d been learning. 

So how do they help change makers?

  1. It allows you to anticipate what might happen and adjust your approach ahead of time – rather than wake up the morning after something politically seismic has happened, scenario exercises allow you to identify what interventions could be made now to prevent the scenario happening. It’s easy to wake up the morning after and lament what had happened, but scenario exercises allow you to look into the future and make decisions about how you use your resources.

  2. It get you to engage with how the forces we are working against would be thinking – for the exercise to work well someone has to really get into the mind and approach of those you’re targeting. Forcing yourself to think and act like those that are opposing your agenda can feel uncomfortable, but it’s an invaluable way of building knowledge and understanding of your opponents approach. It takes power mapping to another level.

  3. They show you what you should already be confident in – back to our exercises at SCUK, we’d already started to make plans for the election, so the exercise highlighted what we were already doing right. It allowed us to establish that we had already had good instincts about  what our priorities would be, that we were able to think about the implications of decisions and that we could quickly get policy messages out in response to media enquiries.

  4. But it also highlighted gaps in our knowledge and planning – it gave us some invaluable insight into areas that we weren’t as sharp on, or areas where we needed to do more collective planning. For example we found that we got too many people involved in our decision making, we weren’t as clear on what we could/couldn’t do under election law, and we had gaps in our contacts with some political parties.

  5. It get’s colleagues working together as a team, especially under pressure – throughout my career I’ve found that doing something collectively together is a great way to build connections in a team, and while I know colleagues definitely rolled their eyes when some of the requests came through during our election ‘day’, it led to a stronger team being built ahead of the moment of actually needing to deploy our election plans.

After the ‘hot takes’ – lessons from the US election

I’m dubious of ‘hot takes’ of what just happened, and that what it means for the future – and there were loads of these hot takes going around after the US elections back in November.

But now a few months have passed, I’ve found myself coming back to a few pieces written by smarter people than me on what lessons there might be for those of us interested in progressive politics here in the UK.

It all comes with the caveat that the US is very different politically from the UK – and we’re not due another General Election for a few years, and that we should be spending way more energy learning from other comparative democracies closer to home – on that I’d recommend a read of this from the More in Common team based on the French elections back in the summer.

But I’ve found myself reflecting that we do need to at least take a moment to reflect on the lessons – both from what the rise of far-right populism that is emerging across the developed world, and also what it tells us about how the electorate is engaged in politics.

  1. Your experience of the economy is not my experience of the economy – I found this by Andrew Pendleton an excellent read how people experience the economy, and what it means for politics. There is lots of talk about growth, and how GDP is increasing, but that as Andrew writes that’s not most people’s experience of the economy, and ‘the problem of stagnant average living standards, coupled with failing public services, along with high levels of inequality…is a potent mix”. The adage that it’s all about the economy is true, but how you experience the economy is often very from others.
  1. Go to where people are and connect with them on a hyperlocal level – Campaign Lab, led by Hannah O’Rourke, has some practical lessons for progressive campaigners, bringing together learning from their experiences of working on the Labour election victory and reflections from the US. One stands out, about the need at a time when trust in national politics is collapsing to “root their efforts in local soil. The local level provides that crucial bridge between people, politics, and place – it’s where abstract policies become tangible and mean something to people” and a challenge that progressive activists ‘waste too much money waiting for people to come to them, instead of going to where people are already organising and talking” (something that was very much echoed by Hahrie Han during her recent book tour in the UK)
  1. Campaigns are fought on terrain set by culture – I really appreciated this piece on Semafor (h/t Paul at Rally) with lessons from those involved in the Harris digital campaign, and the role that culture plays in delivering a message ‘“Campaigns, in many ways, are last-mile marketers that exist on terrain that is set by culture, and the institutions by which Democrats have historically had the ability to influence culture are losing relevance’ and the challenge not to just focus on the spaces that  – unless ‘the race was going to come down to voters who do not pay attention to politics or mainstream news and instead get their information from people on YouTube, their friends’ Instagram stories, or links or memes dropped in a group chat’. Two lessons that instinctively make sense when written out but ones I see many campaigners overlook.

4. How we communicate is changing – and quickly – a colleagues passed the short piece above on so I don’t know the original source, but I liked how it explored how strategic comms approaches are changing with the key principles now being ‘volume, iterate rather than perfect, move fast and apologise rather than ask permission, and build up a community (“cult”) of people who are really passionate about your cause and talk directly to them rather than through intermediaries / gatekeepers’. You might not agree with everything in it, but one to be aware when thinking about how other brands, organisations and campaigns will be approaching communications.

    Lessons in movement building from an evangelical megachurch

    You might assume there isn’t much that campaign movements here in the UK can learn from an evangelical megachurch in the Midwest USA, but you’d be wrong.

    You might assume there isn’t much that campaign movements here in the UK can learn from an evangelical megachurch in the Midwest USA.

    But academic Hahrie Han’s latest book, Undivided explores the experience of a group of church members who follow a racial justice programme as part of the churches activities, and it has a whole range of lessons for those of us looking at building people powered movements for change.

    On a personal note, as someone who has grown up in and around churches since a young age, and at times has worked with colleagues and organisations who’ve been part of US evangelical community it was fascinating to have someone play back somethings that have always felt instinctive to how I’ve approached my organising.

    I was reminded of this brilliant pamphlet Purpose Driven Campaigning, which draws on the lessons from the hugely influential Purpose Driven Church book which was all about how churches grow and applies those to movement building.

    Some of us had some time with Hahrie when she was over the UK at the end of November for a book tour organised by the brilliant team at Act Build Change – and I took away the following reflections:

    1. We need to stop seeing people not wanting to get involved as the problem – they do, so it’s not a demand side issue, it’s a supply side one, and that’s on us. We need to be thinking about how we create replicable and attractive opportunities that people want to join.

      Megachurches think a lot about the design of the experience that people have as they come into their spaces, and how they use small group to connect people into meaningful community.

    2. Getting involved in public life is not a natural instinct – People are hungry to be in community, but they can find that in lots of other spaces well away from getting involved in change making. We should always remind ourselves of that when thinking about the design of the opportunities we offer.

      We need to supply meaningful ways people can get involved, and think deeply about the design of them given the competing demands.

    3. Start with belonging before belief – the church that Hahrie studied didn’t expect people to believe in their creeds before they were able to belong – their logic is that finding belief comes from finding a place of belonging, and beyond that there will be issues/topics where people don’t agree, but they still find a community.

      The book explores this around racial justice, but you could apply this to other issues where there was deep disagreement.  Too often we put barriers in the communities that we create which prevent people from belonging unless they agree across a whole range of issues. That means our movements will always struggle to grow.

    4. We need to develop asks that allow people to grow their own agency – many of the asks that we make as campaigners are ones that can be carried out in isolation, and are low risk for the people who take them, as there is little impact on them in terms of their time/money/effort if they don’t succeed. Actions like signing a petition reinforce to individuals that they are cogs in a machine.

      We can make a choice to develop an offer that need to be created in community, and higher risk for those that take them – i.e. they might put in lots of time/effort and the outcome does not get achieved.  It’s in those asks that individuals grow as leaders, but also build community with others.

    5. Invest in leaders – megachurches invest a huge amount in their volunteer leaders, inspired by the example of Jesus who spent much of his time teach/training his 12 disciples.
    1. Go to where people are – we are at risk of getting drawn into a context where there is a political class – who are driving the political system but amounts of a small % of the population, and a non-political class who are increasingly not speaking or understanding each other.

      Megachurches have thought deeply about how they go to where people are – designing programmes and activities to reach all types of people – take a look here at the sheer range of groups available at the church Hahrie’s book is based.
    1. Remember what you measure is what matters – if you’re not measuring it and accountable for it, then you’re less likely to prioritise it.

    More on the book here if you’re interested – it comes highly recommended.

    Some campaign reflections from Labour Party Conference

    Last week, I joined 30,000 others in Liverpool for Labour Party Conference – I was attending in my role at Save the Children UK.

    I’ll not add to the hot-takes because you can’t seem to avoid LinkedIn for them, but as someone with a background in campaigning it was interesting to think about how to most effectively use ‘outsider’ tactics at a political conference which is often viewed as a peak ‘insider’ influencing moment.

    Conference is a really controlled space centered around the Secure Zone where most of the fringe events and main conference hall is. You can only get in with a pass.

    Understandably there are lots of staff from the Labour Party and others making sure the event runs as planned. That’s fair enough it’s their conference and they want to do what they can make sure it follows the aims and objectives they have for it. But it really limits what you can do as a campaigner inside the conference.

    For example on one of my ways through security I had to show them what was on a rolled-up poster I’d bought about joining a union inside the conference (by the way you should also join a Union). There are ways to get campaign messages visible but it’s often about getting it on lanyards, badges, t-shirts, etc.  

    Most key ministers and advisers stay in the Secure Zone for the whole conference – it’s a real bubble, so lots of things that happen outside just don’t get noticed so it’s helpful to be realistic about what can be achieved.

    You spend most of your day getting between venues for fringe meetings, 1:1 conversations, receptions, and other events – to get into the Secure Zone you generally had to walk past a range of different protests who were happening just outside.

    They came on all issues – from pro-EU campaigners with a very loud sound system and flags, to protest on Gaza, plus a range of other issues – although to be honest it wasn’t always easy to work out what the campaign was on in the moments you had as you walked in.

    If you’re going to protest outside the entrance – make sure it’s really clear what your message is, and try to make how you amplify it different from everyone else.

    You also find as you go into the venue you’ll get handed flyers for a whole range of topics – some are campaigns trying to influence the internal votes/motions that are being debated by Labour members, others are for fringe events, and others are on a range of concerns – I’ll be honest I can only remember a few of the flyers as they often contained lots of information in them.

    The most effective campaign outside the entrance was from the NEU (more on them below) where on one morning they had a whole class of school children encouraging us to sign a petition on free school meals – it worked as it was different, the children wanted to talk with you, and they had an action you could take.


      I saw loads of campaigns using ad vans across the week – I tried to do a little thread of them over on BlueSky. I noticed them, and others must do as well as I had a couple of people mention they’d seen some vans that Save the Children had hired on the two-child limit on Sunday.

      I don’t think billboards worked well at this conference – but that’s probably a result of the fact that the Waterfront in Liverpool is beautiful and doesn’t have any billboard sites. I saw some further away in the city center so you would only see if you were getting the train/bus into the city or walking back to a hotel – but that might be different at other cities like Manchester or Birmingham where there are more spaces close to the venue.

      I didn’t see any projections in person – but I know 38 Degrees and others did a some around the city.

      The most effective campaign during the week was from the NEU on Free School Meals because it was so joined up – they had ad vans, the school children outside, their stall in the exhibition area, delegates with sticker, and their conference fringe events were linked to the issue. You couldn’t miss it. And that projected into their digital campaigning as well during the week. It was an excellent approach.

      The Daily Mirror did the best campaigning panels – the highlight of my fringe was an event with these young people, that in part as they able to bring the campaigning brand the paper has with it’s political contacts to get those with power to listen to those who have been involved in their campaigns.

      There are definitely opportunities here for campaigning organisation to do more with fringe events – for example thinking creatively about who’s invited to be on a panel, but the risk is that lots of work can go into planning an event only for your key political target to pull out.

      It’s important to remember that alongside the fringe events and networking is a political conference happening – that includes Labour members voting on and discussing motions on a range of issues. It’s a complicated process to use – but Unite used it effectively to get conference to vote against cuts to the Winter Fuel Allowance.

      Everyone spends lots of time on their phones at conference – everything is arranged via WhatsApp, and most people seem to following what’s happening on Twitter/X. I think there are tactics/approaches which could get campaigning content shared and spread that way – perhaps paying for geolocated adverts, or trying to seed content that’s shared via WhatsApp. Something to think about.

      How should campaigners prepare for a Labour Government?

      Assuming a catastrophic polling failure doesn’t happen, tomorrow Sir Keir Starmer is going to be the next Prime Minister, and Labour is going to form the next Government with a significant majority – so like lots of changemakers I’ve been thinking about what that means for engaging with the next Government, especially given it’s the first time in 14 years.

      Here are a few key reflections I’ve got about how to approach that:

      Access does not equal influence – it can be easy to think that being invited to be part of a conversation, roundtable or consultation means that you’ve got influence, but as I remember from a very old NCVO campaigning guide I read back when I started my campaigning work – access does not equal influence.

      Indeed consultations and roundtable can often be processes designed to keep stakeholder ‘busy’. Of course, being in the room and the conversation is a great starting point, but it’s dangerous to think that just because you’re ‘in the room’.

      As we approach a new government, changemakers are going to have to show what they bring to the conversation – a constituency of support (that can be mobilised), expertise, policy ideas, or something else – rather than just assume ‘being a charity’ means you’ll be invited into the room.

      With a significant majority, it’s time to remember that like any political party, there are groups and factions within the Labour Party – as this article suggests, the challenges for Labour could come from within the party as much as from the opposition. So spend some time reading about Labour’s founding and right from the start it’s been a party that has drawn a range of different intellectual traditions together.

      That continues up until today – with different factions and tribes within the Labour Party having different levels of influence and roles to play within the Parliamentary Labour Party.

      It’s really worth the investment of time understanding them – and thus how decisions on how you engage with MPs who align with different parts of the Parliamentary Labour Party will inform how your approach is viewed.

      Pay attention to the post-election narratives that emerge – for the last few years countless articles have been written about the ‘Red Wall’ and how it was the key battleground for future election. What voters in the Red Wall think has shaped the political decisions of the last 5 years – and the same will happen after this election.

      Narratives will emerge about what was behind the result and what it means for the decisions that a new Government can make. Some organisations are able to try to shape and influence those narratives – others aren’t, but being aware of them, and what that will mean for the political landscape of the next 5 years.

      Give new MPs some space – looking back at this post from 2011 I’m reminded of this one – where Dominic Raab (whatever happened to him)  complained about being overwhelmed with messages from constituents.

      He was at the extreme end of what was happening, but it’s a useful reminder than for many MPs they’re going to spend the first few weeks of the new Parliament getting offices set up, working out how to navigate around Parliament literally and figuratively, and pick up casework from their predecessors – while at the same time being exhausted from 6 weeks of campaigning.

      Giving them a little space before you lunch into your pitch might actually yield better results.

      Keep calm and make friends – if Labour gets a significant majority, then there are likely to be a significant number of MPs without any formal roles in Parliament (for example on Select Committees) or within Government.

      Many will be wanting to ‘tow the line’ until the first reshuffle happens – in the hope that they’ll be viewed favorably for promotion. That will all change after that reshuffle has happened as the ‘winners’ and ‘losers’, but even before then it’s also a great opportunity to work with new MPs who are interested in the issues you’re working on.

      Don’t overlook the opposition – it’d be easy to go ‘all in on Labour’ with any influencing strategy at the moment given the likelihood of a sizeable majority, but as retiring Green MP, Caroline Lucas, reflected in this lecture last month, there is still lots a loan MP can do using the Parliamentary processes that exist.

      And that will be true for the opposition parties as well – if the Lib Dems pick up seats what are the opportunities to work with them on getting issues discussed and debated, and even if the Conservatives spend the next 12 months having a argument about the direction they want to go in, are their individual MPs you can look to work with.

      How to follow the General Election as a curious campaigner

      With the election campaign in full swing, here are some thoughts on how can you take a step back to follow the election as a curious campaigner – rather than get swept up with the latest ‘hot takes’.

      I LOVE elections!

      So since the General Election was called I’ve spent way too much time scrolling through Twitter/X, listening to the latest podcast and gossiping away on WhatsApp.

      But with the campaigns in full swing, here are some thoughts on how to follow the election as a curious campaigner.

      1 – Get beyond the ‘what’s happened’ analysis – there are some brilliant people getting under the skin of the election campaign to help unpack the tactics and approaches that the parties are using, as there are lots of interesting ideas for campaigners to take.

      I’ve especially been enjoying ex-Labour adviser Dr Nick Bowes daily updates on LinkedIn, Benedict Pringle who’s been taking a deep dive at the advertising strategies of the parties, Aggie Chambre on the Politico Westminster Insider podcast and Tom Hamilton’s excellent Substack ‘Dividing Lines’ on the art of political attack.

      2 – Follow the election on a different platform – The parties are all investing huge amounts of money and time in digital campaign, so it’s been interesting to dive onto some less familiar social media platforms to see how the parties are approaching different audiences.

      What you see on Facebook is very different from what you’ll get on Instagram – and there full of creative and innovative ideas about how to communicate your message. I thought this was good on the approach the parties are taking on TikTok.

      3 – Jump into listen to a Focus Group – amongst the pollsters I find that More in Common consistently share some of the most interesting polling insight (and not just on the way your biscuit preference informs your vote).

      They’ve got a great series of deep dives looking at the polling on different issues, but they’ve also launched Focus Groups Live – which is bringing the views of focus groups, that are often only accessible to those who fund them to everyone. A great way to listen to what others are thinking. I’d also recommend The Times Radio Focus Groups.

      And if you want the ultimate Focus Group then I’d strongly encourage you to pick a party or candidate you want to support and go knock on some doors for them to see what voters are really thinking.

      4 – Pick some different constituency races and follow from your laptop – depending on where you live, you might be getting fed up of hearing from the parties who are competing for your vote, or if you live in a safe seat feeling like you’ve been totally overlooked.

      But thanks to internet you can do that from the comfort of your sofa – so pick some races that are different to where you live, follow the candidates on social media, see what they’re serving up on the Facebook Ad Library and set up Google News alerts to get a sense of how the parties are approaching winning over voters in very different parts of the country.

      The team at Democracy Club also have Election Leaflets. Don’t have time to do that, then I’d recommend Who Targets Me for getting more on what the parties are doing.

      5- Watch the news with the sound off – this was one my top takeaways from this Institute of Government discussion on communication strategies at the election – the point being that many people are watching the news on TV while trying to feed the kids, get the washing in, or rush out to the gym, and often with the sound off.

      So the pictures and visuals matter as much as the words. A good reminder that as campaigners that it’s not all about the policy narrative – and often about the images that are linked with your campaign.

      Getting Ahead of the Curve – 6 Considerations for Campaigners ahead of the next UK General Election

      I spend a lot of time thinking about the Labour Party – my wife would suggest at times it’s been way too much time!

      But as we’re now around 18 months out from the last possible date for a General Election, and with Labour holding a solid lead in opinion polls, it’s something that I’ve started to think about more and more in my campaigning work.

      As I’ve thought about it, I’ve considered some areas that campaigners need to consider in their approach.

      1. Too much focus on policy as opposed to politics – it’s very easy for campaigners and changemakers to spend lots of energy focusing on a list of what they’d like to see a future government do on their issue.

      Of course, you need to engage in a process to try to influence manifestos, but that needs to be done with a focused look at the politics of the election.

      The Labour leadership has a clear sense of what they think they need to do to win the election: the constituencies, voters, and issues that are going to matter. So any thinking about policies needs to be ruthlessly considered through that political lens.

      Right now, Labour is focused on demonstrating economic credibility in its approach and appears to have an interest in pursuing a similar ‘small shield’ strategy with a narrow focus on a few issues and pledges running up to the election, like the approach taken by the Australian Labor Party in 2022.

      But beyond that, they’re certainly doing more polling than you are about what matters to voters. So ensuring that you spend time understanding what matters to those key voters that Labour needs and how your ask might fit is vital.

      I try to keep on top of this on my semi-regular polling threads over on Twitter, but at the very least, I’d recommend a regular review of the monthly issues tracking data from Ipsos and More in Common.

      2. Assuming it’ll be easy to influence policy under a Labour government – It’s been 13+ years since we had a Labour government, so there are fewer campaigners around who’ll remember what it was like. It was early in my career, and I think I’d characterize it as ‘easier but certainly not easy’

      Now admittedly, on lots of issues, the starting point for influencing will be more favorable, so getting a meeting or finding a sympathetic backbench government MP to push your cause might be easier.

      But the economic conditions that the next Government is going to inherit will lead to tough choices. Those campaigners who can offer policy ideas that don’t require significant funding are likely to find a warmer reception.

      Any changemaker approaching the next year with a ‘fingers crossed’ strategy – hoping that if Labour wins, they’ll do the right thing on their issue – is, in my view, making a mistake.

      Any incoming government is going to find itself in a tight spot economically, with potentially limited bandwidth to do much else.

      3. That today’s Labour is the same as it was in 1997, 2015, or 2019 – From the outside, Labour might look like one large happy political family, but like any political party, it’s really a group of different factions, groups, and viewpoints who are working with each other – sometimes together and sometimes against each other.

      While the formal policy-making processes of the party are largely the same as they have been at previous elections – with the National Policy Forum process currently ongoing ahead of the conference in the autumn and the formal ‘Clause V’ meeting once the election is called to approve the manifesto.

      Beyond that, this is a new edition of the Labour Party with a new leader and new individuals influencing him. So spending time understanding which groups/factions are growing in influence, and which aren’t, matters as it’ll give you key insight.

      You can draw some of this from the background of the candidates getting selected (I’d recommend the Tomorrow’s MP Twitter feed), the announcements that are being made from the leader of the opposition office as they’re the ones that are approved and ‘on the grid’ (the media planning process that political parties use), and who is advising key ministers – see here for one example of a briefing from a public affairs agency which provides some of that.

      So while some of the individuals might have been involved in previous editions of the Labour Party, and there might be parallels with previous elections that Labour has fought – campaigners need to start with a blank piece of paper when it comes to power mapping.

      4. That your reputational shadow will be enough – I’m a huge fan of the writing of David Karpf, and I especially like the concept of the ‘reputational shadow’ that he writes about – the sense that politicians judge your influence based on their past experiences of the constituency of support for your issue that you’ve been able to demonstrate.

      As we know, the Labour leadership will be doing a huge amount of polling at the moment, so they know where the public, especially those they hope will vote for them, stand on issues.

      Campaigns need to be careful not to assume that previously mobilised support for an issue still exists and is seen as influential.

      Some groups, especially the trade union movement, which is a constituent part of the Labour Party (they’re literally part of the family), will always be central to thinking when decisions on policy and approach are being made. But the views and concerns of other sectors and groups will only be there if they are seen to be important to an influential part of the electorate.

      5. The election is a foregone conclusion – Sure, the polls currently point to a sizeable win for the Labour Party, and it’s right to plan with that as the most likely outcome.

      But, if we look at polls taken at this moment ahead of both the 2010 and 2015 elections, we’ll find leads that didn’t translate into the final result on election day. For example, 18 months out from May 2010, David Cameron’s Conservatives had a +6/8% lead, and the result was a coalition government.

      Now, lots has changed since those elections, and the circumstances will be different. But campaigners need to constantly evaluate what’s happening and adapt their plans and approach, including engaging with smaller parties who could become important if the polls narrow and a hung Parliament looks like a potential outcome.

      6. Overlooking the Conservative Party – Not only will they be the party of Government until the election which could still be over a year away – and could plausibly win the next General Election – but they will also be one of the major political forces in the UK for years to come.

      So while it might be tempting to pause or stop engagement with the Conservative Party, that feels like a mistake, especially if a period after an election defeat leads to some very public discussions about the direction of the party.

      Smart mapping of who is likely to be influential in the future leadership of the Conservative Party and ongoing engagement needs to continue.

      ChatGPT: A Revolutionary Tool for Political Communication and Influence?

      It’s almost becoming a cliché, but it seems that you need to start any post on ChatGPT or another similar A.I (Artificial Intelligence) tool by sharing what it has suggested you should say!

      I’ve not done that, although there is one part of this blog that has been informed by using the tool – more on that below.

      I’m not going to lie – I’m a little freaked out when thinking about what new A.I. tools will mean for us, but as David Karpf said in this really helpful seminar on the implications of ChatGPT for political campaigning, this is potentially one of the most game-changing technologies that we’ve seen in campaigning in the last decade so it’s not something that you can just pretend to ignore.

      So what does it mean for campaigners?

      Here are 5 quick thoughts from a brief exploration of ChatGPT;

      1. It’s not going to take our jobs for now – I love this article from Future Advocacy which looks at how ChatGPT performs when presented with regular activities that will come across the desk of a campaigner.

        It’s quite clear that the tool currently isn’t able to replicate the insight and knowledge that comes from a curiosity about how change happens which is the key to being a successful campaigner.

        For example, it’s not able to pick up on the nuance and subtlety that is often needed in the development of campaign strategies. And because it uses the information that it’s been fed with, it’s not able to come with innovation or novel approach – ask it to develop a campaign strategy and it’ll share a range of ideas you’d probably think about – although it’ll do that in second not hours.

        And when it comes to messaging – it’s rather good at producing cliches, but those can quickly demonstrate a lack of authenticity that’s often needed for communications to cut through.

        It has some clear limitations – for now.
      2. But it could certainly help in automating some processes for campaigners – there are probably a whole set of regular tasks where it could be helpful for campaigners.

        Think about the challenge that some MPs have with campaigners producing the same pro-forma campaign email to them – could ChatGPT help to take information from a constituent and then produce a unique email response? (see this from Rally who tried just that).

        Or the optimisation of adverts on social media platforms – it’s very easy to see how ChatGPT could help to produce different advert copy that could accelerate the optimisation process.

        Or could ChatGPT be used to help in filtering and replying to responses to submissions to survey, applications for volunteer roles, or grant applications?

      3. And that raises some important discussions about ethics that need to happen – this is a whole post in itself – about the inherent bias in the tool, the transparency of the outputs, and the motivates of those behind ChatGPT, but practically this is a conversation that is already emerging in the publishing industry where publishers are starting to be clear where they are and aren’t going to be using ChatGPT.

        Campaigners are also going to need to be clear about how they’re using ChatGPT and be transparent about that with those they’re sharing the outputs with. As I said above, this article is all my own work, but I did ask ChatGPT for some help on the title of the blog.

      4. This is where it probably is useful for now – as a starting point for research or ideas – as a tool it can be great as a starting point if you’re stuck and looking for ideas – like brainstorming title for a blog post, or an email subject line, or providing the initial outline of what you might want to include in a briefing note, or summarising an existing policy report or debate in Parliament, or helping you to organise a complex data set – the outputs might not be perfect, and certainly need a human to look over the output, but it’s a powerful tool to help to get you started.

      5. And it’s certainly going to fuel misinformation and disinformation – everyone has access to A.I tool, and it’s almost certainly the case that it’s already being used to pursue disinformation – see this for some examples of how it’s already being used in the US. If this is what the tools are able to develop and generate in just 6 months, so it’s likely that as it becomes more ‘smart’ that – for example, it’s already the case that A.I can take audio of someone speaking and turn it into a speech generator which you can program – so you can imagine the rise of deep fakes of politican supposedly saying something they’ve never said.

        That’s going to raise some important challenges for campaigners which we can’t just ignore – about how you both deal with the effects of disinformation campaigns but also help to encourage critical thinking, and support activities that help to counter polarisation in society.

      How to – commission polling for your campaign

      I’m seeing more and more campaigners turn to opinion polling as a tactic – and having recently been involved in commissioning some polling, I thought it’d be useful to share a few lessons that I’ve picked up;

      1. Start by being clear on what you’re looking to achieve from your polling – ask yourself is it polling ‘to know’ or ‘to show’?

      Polling to know is about giving you and your organisation insight and information for the campaigning you are doing, it might be used to inform your strategy or approach, but it might not be something you want to make public.

      Polling to show is when it’s designed to demonstrate to your target audience (that could be a decision maker, supporters or the wider public) something that you want them to know about public opinion on a specific issue – this is probably something you’re going to look to put out in a press release or briefing.

      2. Decide on the type of polling you want to do – there are different approaches, and they all have different timescales to them. The most common polling that you see is based on a nationally representative sample of the UK public – basically, the pollster you work with will get the views of around 1,000 people to make up a sample that reflects the population of the UK – normally these can be turned around in a few days as most pollsters have weekly polls they can drop them into – where their panels respond to questions on a whole range of topics.

      You can also look to use the same approach but ask to focus on a particular region of the UK (as a national representative sample probably won’t give you a sample size big enough to be statistically significant for most specific regions or nations) or a group (for example previous Conservative voters) – generally the more complicated the sample you’re looking for the longer and more expensive it can get.

      Increasingly some organisations are using MRP (Multilevel regression and post-stratification) polling, which is a more complex approach, which seeks to sample a large group, and then uses statistical analysis of that plus insight from the census to provide estimates of opinions and attitudes for geographical areas, like a constituency – it’s a great way of getting more detailed insight, and 38 Degrees are the example of an organisation who use it powerfully for campaigning, but it’s much more expensive and takes longer (weeks not days) – so potentially good for planned work but less useful if you’re looking for something quickly.

      3. Decide how you’re going to share the results from the start – as you start to think about polling bring together all those who will be involved in sharing the findings together. If you’re looking to get media coverage from your polling, you want to be getting media colleagues involved to think about the media line you might be looking for – and also what else has been in the media recently.

      You can also think about using results in MP briefing – especially useful if you can provide details by constituency or region, and there is lots you can do – especially if you can find interesting ways of bringing the findings to life.

      Deciding on your approach before you commission – can help you think what you’re looking for in the questions you ask. Also, talk with whomever you’re commissioning the polling from to see if they’ll be happy to share the findings on their channels as well – it might be a good way of getting the results out to a wider audience.

      One thing that I think charities could look to do more of is to repeat their polling over a period of time – for example, looking to ask the same questions every 6 or 12 months to see how much the political landscape is changing– it’s obviously a commitment in resource, but could be an interesting approach.

      4. Who to work with – there are lots of companies that will offer to do polling for you, but some have better reputations than others. If you’re looking for polling that is going to be used in more political work, then start by looking at working with a polling company that regularly publishes polls on voting intention as they’re likely to have better name recognition with your targets – looking for a member of the British Polling Council is probably a good place to start.

      Every polling company charges differently but expect to put aside at least a few £100s for each question you want to ask – and it’s often the case you’ll want to ask more than one, and as mentioned earlier more complexity = more cost, but often more interesting results.

      Expect to get a spreadsheet with the results, including breaking them down by different demographics, and sometimes previous voting intention from your pollster. While these breakdowns can be interesting – be careful not to over-interpret small sample sizes.

      5. Coming up with the questions – there is an art to writing great polling questions – and for your polling to have credibility it’s important to try to avoid bias or opinion in them that leads to a particular result.

      The polling company you work with will be able to advise you on how to approach this but also get the insight or information you’re looking for. I’d also recommend running the question by someone who isn’t as close to the subject as you are – to get a sense of it it’s understandable to someone without expert knowledge of a topic.

      And a note to caution, the reality is that if you’re asking on something very specific it might be that you get lots of ‘don’t know’ answers.

      Some campaigns lessons to close out 2022

      For the last few months, I’ve had a growing pile of books by my desk, all of which have sparked a half-written blog post in my head, but as the year comes to an end I’ve decided that’s unlikely to happen, and so to put them into one blog with some of the key learnings I’m taking away from them.

      Prisms of the People, authored by Hahrie Han, Elizabeth McKenna, and Michelle Oyakawa, is a cracking read which came out at the end of 2021. Much of what I find helpful is how it’s been super helpful in sharpening my thinking and approach to how we understand power. Linked to the book being published was this really useful paper and these 4 principles which I’ve been trying to reflect on during the year;

      1. Power is dynamic – too often we think about power as static, that an organisation or movement has it or doesn’t have it, but it’s so much more complex than that. It’s about the interactional relationship between (at least) two political actors.
      2. Resources do not equal power – sure it can help, but just because you have a big mailing list doesn’t mean you have power. Simply amassing one resource will not automatically lead to power. Movement building is the work of the process
      3. There is a difference between potential power – the resources organisations need to be ready to exert power in the world when the opportunity comes, and the exercise of power – the actual things your organisation does to exert its power in the world (win elections, pass policies, turnout activists).
      4. Power is like an iceberg – after Steven Lukes it has at least 3 faces (visible, hidden, and invisable). You can only see the tip of the iceberg (the visible power) but much of it remains submerged underwater (‘hidden’ power). Too often as activists, we just think about the visible power, but ignore the other faces of power.

      Reflecting more on power, I also enjoyed Power for All by Julie Battilana and Tiziana Casciaro, it’s a wide-ranging, but very accessible read that acts as a primer to how power can be harnessed to make positive changes in our lives, work, and societies – I found the chapter on power in movements really interesting, and especially the research by Julie on how every successful social movement requires three distinct leadership roles: the agitator, the innovator, and the orchestrator.

      As the authors write in this paper, a movement needs those threes roles to work together with the;

      • Agitator stirring the pot by articulating and publicising grievances, rallying an otherwise diverse group of people around a mutual desire for change
      • the Innovator developing solution to address the grievances – and helping to justify those alternatives in appealing ways to engage individuals, groups, and organizations to support them
      • finally the Orchestrator spreads the solution created by the innovator, thinking how best to reach and work with people both within and outside the movement.

        The chapter also picks up on the need that most changes come about through the long and hard work of movement building, something that isn’t necessarily glamorous or that gets much attention but is required for sustained action.

      On that theme, Gal Beckerman’s book, The Quiet Before, is a really interesting and thorough look at the important work of how ideas and movements are incubated and grow often initially unnoticed.

      Drawing on a range of examples from across the world and history Beckerman draws out on the importance of that quiet and unnoticed work that happens in the incubation stage of a movement before, reflecting on the challenge that our social media-driven culture means that we often move immediately to the ‘trigger’ without the work of building a shared movement identity which means it can be hard to sustain beyond an initial moment of outrage.

      Tracing movements like Chartists in the 1800s to the democracy movement in Russia to Black Lives Matter, Beckerman looks at how the pre-digital forms that often required individuals to spend time writing down and honing messages, discussing and debating ideas, refining ideas and arguments, and building a sense of shared identity.

      And while we can’t go back to that– as we end the year with the future of Twitter looking uncertain, there is a truth in examples from the book on in the importance of that slower work of building our networks for change, and appropriate response to this challenge from Bill Mckibben that ‘we’ve almost certainly relied too much on Twitter ….posting has become a substitute for other kinds of action…it’s given us less incentive to build out real and substantial networks’.

      It was David Karf’s post on rethinking political innovation, that pointed me in the direction of The Innovation Delusion by Lee Vinsel and Andrew Russell – not everything in the book was relevant, but its central message that we’ve become obsessed with labeling everything as innovation and always looking for new when actually we should also be focusing more of our work and efforts on maintenance.

      I know how much I can be drawn to celebrating or searching for the ‘new’ when it’s as important to focus on maintaining what is already there. The book offers a useful set of principles for a maintenance mindset – that it can sustain success as when done well it can ensure longevity and sustainability, that doing so depends on culture and management – a good challenge that we need to celebrate those heroes who as much as we praise those who we see as innovators, and maintenance requires constant care (and time put aside for that).

      Books that give an insight into what really happens inside the institutions, and Jess Philips, The Life of an MP, is funny, and a contemporary example of just that. It’s a truthful, and engaging look at how MPs have to juggle their constituency and casework, with a push for progress on other interests they have or causes they support.

      Of course, the way every MP works is different, but Philips does an excellent job at presenting honestly the reality of that balance and providing some useful tips and advice to any campaigner. Lots of books about contemporary politics can be interesting reads, but they are about what’s happened and how what, this is a little different as it’s much more about what’s happening on a daily basis for an MP.

      My final book is Producing Politics by Daniel Laurison, it’s a sociological look at what happens inside US political campaigns and the reality that most decisions are made by a small group of individuals who move from one campaign to another. Given the site of study is the US political system which is very different from the UK, not all of it is relevant (although it’s an interesting read if like me you are a bit obsessed with US politics) but a few reflections from the book stood out for me and I think do translate more widely. 

      The observation that much of what happens within campaigns isn’t driven by data and evidence but by ‘follow handed down by one campaign to the next’, that campaigns should be sites where there is lots of engagement with the public but too much time is spent with others who share – a challenge to get out more, and that too little time is spent building deep and meaningful engagement despite the evidence that it can have the most transformative impact on the outcomes all resonated with me.